The current main hypothesis points to the Patagonian provinces located approximately 1,500 kilometers to the north, where the Andes strain of the virus, capable of human-to-human transmission, has been detected, also in Chile.
A spokesperson for the provincial Directorate of Epidemiology and Environmental Health stated that there are no elements linking Tierra del Fuego to the fatal cases recorded on the vessel, which departed from Ushuaia in early April. The possibility of the outbreak originating in this region is “practically nil,” according to the same source.
“"The timelines are not compatible with an infection produced in Tierra del Fuego, nor with infections on land. When the person began the period of transmissibility, they were already on board the ship."
The affected individuals boarded the MV Hondius without symptoms, and the virus's incubation period, which can last up to 45 days, rules out Tierra del Fuego as the incubation site, as the infected couple only stayed in the area for two days. Furthermore, the province has not registered hantavirus cases in the last three decades, and the scarcity of the transmitting rodent in the region further reduces this possibility.
The Andes strain, which causes the disease, circulates in other areas of the country such as Neuquén, Río Negro, and Chubut, as well as in Chile, where the deceased couple spent weeks before boarding the cruise. A recent hantavirus case in San Carlos de Bariloche, Río Negro, 1,500 kilometers from Ushuaia, strengthens this hypothesis.
An epidemiology expert from a Buenos Aires hospital noted that it is premature to reach a definitive conclusion, as the ecosystems of the transmitting rodent are changing, and cases have been detected in other provinces like Salta, 1,500 kilometers north of Buenos Aires.
