International scientific organizations confirm the arrival of El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon originating in the equatorial Pacific that can have global repercussions. While some regions of the world might face extreme droughts, others could be exposed to episodes of torrential rainfall. In Spain's case, current climate models indicate significant uncertainty regarding specific impacts, which does not exclude the possibility of being affected.
Scientists are studying two main scenarios to understand the potential effects of El Niño in Spain. The first focuses on rising temperatures, which could translate into a general increase in thermometers throughout the year. This would imply even hotter summers, with a higher risk of more intense, longer-lasting heatwaves and record temperatures. In regions like the Mediterranean, already affected by global warming, El Niño could exacerbate these conditions.
The second scenario addresses El Niño's impact on rainfall patterns. The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) notes that years with episodes of this phenomenon, especially those of a "very intense" category, are usually associated with rainier autumns and winters. Specialists suggest that, from September onwards, the formation of "storm trains" could increase. Combined with a superheated atmosphere, there is a possibility of torrential precipitation, which would raise the risk of floods until at least winter.
Experts warn that these are some of the scenarios to monitor in the coming months, although the situation remains uncertain. One of the main unknowns is how long it will take for El Niño's effects to be felt in Spain, as its global climate impact is not immediate. Forecasts indicate that the phenomenon will continue to strengthen at least until next autumn and will extend into early next year, with a 63% probability of reaching a "very strong" intensity.
