According to the latest data from Aemet, there is a 40% probability that the coming months will be hotter than usual, potentially bringing an early start to summer in the islands. This projection is based on a comparison with the 1991-2020 reference period average, indicating that much of the insular territory could experience elevated temperatures, especially in coastal areas and mid-altitudes, where the heat sensation could intensify with the presence of calima (dust in suspension).

Aemet's update for the May-July quarter places the Canary Islands under surveillance. While the probability of unusual heat is higher on the mainland, the archipelago has a 40% chance of a “warmer” scenario, a 35% chance of “normal” values, and only a 25% chance of a colder-than-usual quarter. It is crucial to note that this quarterly forecast does not rule out isolated episodes of temperature drops, although the general trend is upwards.

Regarding precipitation, Aemet has indicated high uncertainty, with no clear trend on whether the coming months will be dry or wet. However, for the Canary Islands, data suggests a 40% probability of a wetter-than-normal quarter, compared to a 25% chance of it being drier. This could translate into intense but brief rainfall, typical of spring instability, which would offer momentary thermal relief but not necessarily resolve the water deficit.

This forecast for the Canary Islands is part of a global trend of rising temperatures, also observed in the Mediterranean area and the Cantabrian Sea. The resilience of the tourism sector and water resource management in the islands will depend on these forecasts being met moderately, avoiding persistent heatwaves that could compromise public safety and health. Aemet reminds that these values refer to the entire 90-day quarter, meaning residents should prepare for a late spring and early summer with more frequent tropical nights and intense sunny days.

For Aemet technicians, “normal” refers to the statistical average calculated between 1991 and 2020. If the prediction materializes, residents of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, and other island municipalities could experience positive temperature deviations of between 1 and 3 degrees above the daily historical average. This increase, though seemingly slight, will have a direct impact on energy consumption due to air conditioning use and on local biodiversity, making daily climate monitoring vital to confirm the persistence of this reality.