The research, published in the journal Regional Environmental Change, analyzed historical data from 1985 to 2014 and generated regionalized climate projections using the FICLIMA method. This statistical approach allows for the creation of local climate change scenarios from global models, offering a detailed outlook on the archipelago's future climate.
“"A heatwave is a prolonged period of abnormally high and extreme temperatures for a region, sustained for at least three consecutive days."
The study, titled “Climate projections of intensifying heat waves in the Canary Islands by 2100 (Spain)”, evaluated four key indicators: frequency, average duration, average intensity, and maximum intensity. The most critical results suggest that the eastern islands, such as Fuerteventura, could experience up to 6.5 additional heatwave episodes per year, with average durations of 10 days and over 60 accumulated days of extreme heat in extreme cases.
The Canary Islands are particularly sensitive to these phenomena due to their location at the boundary between temperate and subtropical climates, making them vulnerable to warm air masses originating from the Sahara Desert. The complex insular topography and the influence of the cold Canary Current also modulate the spatial variability and persistence of these heatwaves.
Furthermore, the regional economy, heavily reliant on tourism and agriculture, faces a growing socioeconomic risk. Projections indicate that while the average temperature during these events may not increase drastically, the maximum intensity could, especially in the western islands like El Hierro and La Palma, with increases of up to +1.4ºC in the most critical scenarios.
The research concludes that this intensification of heatwaves poses a significant challenge for climate change adaptation in the region. Researchers emphasize the need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies, including optimizing urban planning, improving water management, and implementing protection measures for the most vulnerable population sectors. This study is part of the European ARSINOE project, which developed the SICMA Canarias platform for consulting local climate change scenarios.
