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Canary Islands' PSOE Resists Crises, Leads Regional Polls

A Sigma Dos survey places the PSOE as the majority force in the Canary Islands, despite national and local challenges.

Generic image of political polling data in the Canary Islands with a volcanic landscape in the background.
IA

Generic image of political polling data in the Canary Islands with a volcanic landscape in the background.

Despite national crises, the hantavirus issue, and pending UCO reports, the Canary Islands' PSOE maintains its leading position in regional polls, according to Sigma Dos.

The electoral perception of the Canary Islands' PSOE appears resilient to political and health turbulence. Neither the continuous announcements of UCO reports potentially implicating party figures, nor federal-level scandals, nor the crisis stemming from the MV Hondius grounding in Granadilla have diminished its support, as indicated by a Sigma Dos survey.
The poll, conducted among 1,600 individuals and published by El Mundo, forecasts that the Canary Islands' PSOE would win regional elections, albeit with a slight 1.8-point decrease. The People's Party, led by Manolo Domínguez, is also projected to lose 2 points, partly due to Vox's significant 4.8-point increase.
Coalición Canaria (CC) is also expected to see its support decline by 1.2 points, particularly in Tenerife, where Vox appears to be gaining votes. The internal crisis within Nueva Canarias and the split that led to the formation of Primero Canarias will also impact Román Rodríguez's party, causing a loss of 3.1 points. However, the survey does not yet account for the new party's influence.
In terms of parliamentary seats, the Sigma Dos poll projects a legislature where the PSOE would be the majority force with 22-23 seats. This would be followed by Coalición Canaria with 19-20 seats, and the People's Party with 13-14. Vox is predicted to secure 7-8 seats, while the Agrupación Socialista Gomera (ASG) would obtain 3, Nueva Canarias 1-2, and the Agrupación Herreña de Independientes (AHI) 1.
This scenario, while similar to internal party projections, could shift with significant developments in national politics or changes in the balance of power among the islands. Vox's steady growth in the Canary Islands, contrary to the national trend, might complicate governance if they do not join a potential CC-PP majority, an outcome deemed unlikely.
The potential formation of alternative left-wing candidacies to the PSOE, aiming to unite abstaining voters, is unlikely to significantly alter the landscape, as they are not expected to exceed eight seats. This number, combined with the PSOE's projected 23 seats in the best-case scenario, would fall far short of the 36 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

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