Research from the University of La Laguna (ULL), published in the journal Regional Environmental Change, projects a drastic shift in the archipelago's climate. The study, which analyzes historical data and climate projections up to the end of the century, warns that heatwaves will not only become more common but also more prolonged and potentially more severe.

Currently, a heatwave in the Canary Islands lasts an average of four to five days. However, forecasts indicate that by the end of the century, these episodes could extend up to ten consecutive days. In the most critical scenarios, islands like Fuerteventura could experience up to 6.5 additional heatwaves per year, in contrast to the current average of less than one annual episode.

The geographical position of the Canary Islands, situated between temperate and subtropical climates, makes them particularly vulnerable to the influx of warm air from the Sahara. This is compounded by their complex orography and the influence of ocean currents, factors that accentuate climatic differences between the islands. Although the average temperature during these episodes would not drastically increase, maximum temperatures would, with rises of up to 1.4ºC at peak heat in western islands like El Hierro or La Palma.

The increase in heatwaves poses a growing economic risk for the Canary Islands, given their reliance on climate-sensitive sectors such as tourism and agriculture. Researchers emphasize the urgent need to adapt urban planning, improve water management, and protect the most vulnerable populations.

This study is part of the European Arsinoe project, which developed the Sicma Canarias platform to visualize local climate scenarios. This initiative has been recognized with the 2026 Chris Binnie Award for Sustainable Water Management for its contribution to sustainable water management.